Excerpt from an essay in “Le Monde Diplomatique” (you need a password) on postelections South Africa by Achille Mbembe, Johannesburg-based professor of social science and history–and public intellectual (Mbembe also made a star-turn in Jihan Al-Tahri’s excellent documentary “Behind the Rainbow“:
The recent elections highlighted three long-running trends that look like making a major impact on the future of South Africa. The ANC has been deserted by progressive white liberal voters who had overcome racial prejudices and voted with the black majority since 1994. Also, the small regional parties are in disarray and the electorate has polarised around two relatively distinct groups with racial connotations: the black majority, whose constituency is the poor, and a coalition of minorities drawn from relatively well-off white, mixed-race and Indian voters. In addition, there is the republic’s creeping partition. Another phase of internal and external migration is under way.
The white population is on the move, producing further imbalance between coastal areas (the whites’ “new world”) and the interior (the “black lands”). In retreat from cities engulfed by a tide of poor blacks (some from nearby countries), two-stage white emigration is taking place. A move towards the coast and, in particular, to Western Cape Province, precedes departure for Australia, New Zealand, Ireland or Canada.
The arrival of white voters on the coast plus a political compact with black people living there allowed the Democratic Alliance (DA) – comprised of what’s left of former white liberal and racist parties – to win the Western Cape at the general elections, making it the only part of the country where the ANC does not enjoy a majority.
But, far from turning the province into an experiment in post-racial democracy, a proving-ground for political change, every indication is that the DA, under its leader Helen Zille, is intent on creating the continent’s last white colony. This isn’t so much a question of stripping blacks of their political rights, but of trying to install, behind ragbag liberalism and a veil of technological expertise, a version of the same colonial reformism that the apartheid regime proved unable to sustain because it was so hardened by prejudice.
I wonder if the Western Cape might not be moving in the direction of becoming a kind of special zone like Hong Kong, Macao, etc., in some unacknowledged fashion, but with the tacit approval of the black ruling class? Or maybe the more appropriate analogy would be a sort of post apartheid Sun City?
I’ve always thought that Cape Town was exactly that: a white colony. It’s a loathsome place. Where will they go next? The sea!
Lara – Ouch! I suppose you are referring to places like the garish V&A, the southern suburbs, Atlantic seaboard, etc. Don’t forget there’s much more to CPT than that: Retreat, increasingly the northern suburbs, Cape Flats, etc. Yes, impoverished, troubled but vibrantly alive.
Hey I cant see behind the pay wall. What evidence does the professor provide for the “two-stage white emigration”? There seems to be a bit of hyperbole here. I understood that and important reason the ANC lost the Western Cape was on account of its own internal racial divisions – between the Skwatsha and Rasool camps – and the meaningful breakaway of Cope in that province? I was wondering what the numbers here were, other words it seems just speculation which we dont have to take too seriously.
think it would be interesting to put at least a bit of the “class” factor in white migration. I wonder what percentage of the white population is simply unable to leave even if they wanted to. I mean you have to be pretty well off to move your whole family to Canada or even Cape Town. And surely not everyone has the right skills to just up and go.
Im just not convinced the “flight” effect is important – if it exists. In 2004 W.Cape: ANC45%, DA:27%, NNP 11%, ID 8%, Other:10%. In 2009: DA 51%, ANC 32%, COPE 8%, ID 5%, Other: 4%. Imagine the following (and I could be wrong – Im just guessing, I havent read the article, and I dont know how the demographics of the W.Cape have changed from 2004-2009, or indeed from 1994 when in any case the NP won the W.Cape) – Add to the DA’s 27% the 11 from the NNP, 3 from the ID and 6 from other. That takes them to 47%. Subtract from the ANC’s 45 the 8 from Cope. That leaves them at 37. Then we are only left with explaining a 4-6% swing (of 2m voters – that’s 100,000 people). Anyway, would be interested to hear what you guys think and if anyone knows where racial demographics by provinces are / or if there are exit polls by race for the elections. I’ve had a look at StatsSA, but the mid year population estimates dont seem to include race by province. Would be interesting to get some numbers on this.
Laurence – I don’t have the stats at my fingertips but in terms of voting patterns, the most significant factor has always been the Coloured population. Whoever gains the majority of their support, no matter how slim, will win in the Western Cape. To wit, the NP in 1994, then the ANC in the 2000s and now the DA.
Re. the white flight phenomenon, I think what Mbembe is pointing out is that the Western Cape has increasingly become the redoubt of white South Africans and that both the NP’s win in 1994, the DA’s long run as the city government of Cape Town and the DA’s latest win of the province is evidence that the Western Cape is the only part of the country that remains in the control of White South Africans. The ANC’s hold has always been tentative regardless of internal squabbles within the party. Numerically, whites may not be in the majority but they have enough of a critical mass to exercise considerable clout in the province.
Thanks, eKapa. Thats how I understand the voting patterns and politics too. Which is why I dont see this “white flight” thing. In particular the second paragraph “The white population is on the move [...] In retreat from cities engulfed by a tide of poor blacks [...] two-stage white emigration is taking place. A move towards the coast and, in particular, to Western Cape Province, precedes departure for [...]“. I was just curious if there was any numerical evidence for the above or if it is meant metaphorically as you seem to suggest? It makes me uneasy since the language is quite loaded. But again, I’m not able to make a judgment without reading the rest of the piece. Got me thinking today, though, which I guess is the point.
Laurence – You outed me, Bra: I was trying to politely say that Mbembe got seduced by the seeming elegance of his speculations like even the best of us, and he is one of the best, do from time to time. You are absolutely right that there’s really no empirical evidence to support his assertions. But damn, it does sound good until you take a hard look at it!
Laurence: The rest of the piece is a repeat of conventional wisdoms about the ANC and the recent history that brought Zuma to power. I excerpted this section largely because it can be read on its own. I found it an interesting take on the race-class politics of South Africa.
Ekapa: what I have noticed whilst living in travelling in South Africa (since 1992, on and off) is just how segregated Cape Town (and the Cape area) appears to be compared to the rest of the country. Last year, whilst driving down the N1 from Joburg to CT, we noticed how the colour of the drivers changed the closer we got to CT. Increasingly, the drivers were whiter and whiter.
But, yes, you are right, of course. It isn’t all that. It is a vibrant and very mixed area. We had an amazing meal in the Bo-Kaap which we loved, and we explored areas where not a white face was in sight for miles and miles. HOWEVER, what is notable about CT, specifically, is that it does feel like a white enclave in vast parts, especially the areas that are closest to town, that are the richest and best developed. I didn’t feel this to nearly the same extent in Joburg.
But this is based on anecdotal evidence: I didn’t do any research and have no stats to back up what my eyes saw!
Have always thought the lyrics of Harry Bealafonte’s Cape Town to describe it abtly,I have heard this local move described as semigration.
mbembe is a good writer but a terrible thinker. his postcolony book was proof enough of that.
Western and Northern Cape resemble QUEBEC in Canada.
Western and Northern Cape have a clear majority who speaks Germanic languages (Afrikaans and English), first of all Afrikaans.
That doesn´t happen anywhere else in South Africa.
The only place in South Africa where European Colonisation and assimilation (language, religion, culture) has been successful is in Western and Northern Cape.
A decade ago Gauteng had the largest percentage of whites in South Africa (about 22% of the population) but probably now it is Western Cape (18% a decade ago, and probably around 24% now)
But much more important is the contribution of Afrikaans speaking Coloureds, who constitute over 55% of the population. Their language is Afrikaans (with an English speaking minority) and their religion Christianism (with a Muslim minority)
The emigration of Afrikaners from Gauteng is supported by the ANC as it makes possible for African languages and culture to be increasingly important in inner South Africa, including Gauteng, which was strongly Europeanised.
Fron a Nationalist point of view, the distribution of population taking place in South Africa is the same that has happened in any other place, including Canada as hundreds of thousand of Anglos left Quebec while thousands of French speakers emigrated to Quebec where they felt more confortable.
Now for Afrikaans speakers there is no other place to live in South Africa than Western Cape. The result will be a kind of Quebec that will be called AFRIKAANSLAND, the land of Afrikaans speakers (no matter the color), a Natioalism based on language the same as in France or Quebec.
The issue of apartheid and White flight may not necessarily be connected to colour repulsion. For there could be other repulsive factors in Black communication systems, I mean language. Pejorative for lower aged, lower financial acumen, lower positions, professions perceived low etc. It can be terrible. I am sure the Black improved under the Whites, while the White had to keep away from despoiling content in Black languages and communications.
If it is an issue of quality being dominated by quantity, then it is the duty of quality nations like GB to come to the aid of the Whites there. For, the clock is ticking for English nations also, as they all will one day be overwhelmed by the swarming number of other culture peoples.
For more on this: See this http://www.vvv03.org/myonlinewritings.pdf (RightClick&SaveAs) Page 288