Politricks: Jacob Zuma, bring me my machine gun.

The leader of South Africa’s dominant political party and the movement still electorally identified with the majority of the country’s people, is despite his dodgy ethics, remaking himself as a credible successor to Mbeki. More recently Zuma comes across as measured and “leader-like” in media interviews with non-South African, global, media. See for example his interviews with Jon Snow on Britain’s Channel 4 here and with David Frost on Al Jazeera. See here. Though everyone is not convinced, some political observers have taken note (for example, University of Cape Town political scientist Anthony Butler and London’s Independent newspaper, among others. Bring me my machine gun.

The Zuma, Episode 1002

Jacob Zuma was in Davos last week where he charmed corporate and government elites (‘… a man trying to project stability and seriousness’). Responding to a question by a reporter as to what he thought of former cleric and anti-apartheid campaigner Archbishop Desmond Tutu, warning ANC members against Zuma as ‘… someone of whom most of would be ashamed,’ Zuma had this to say:

‘People like Bishop Tutu, a few others, might have their views. I respect him … My understanding is that clergy people are there to pray (and not) take political stances.’

Full story here.

(And I thought Thabo Mbeki was the only one who had this idea of democracy.)

Black Gold

Africa’s share of world oil production is currently around 12 percent.  By 2012 that share will grow to approximately 30 percent.  Nigeria (‘… from where the US expects to source up to a quarter of its oil imports in the next decade …’), Angola (the fastest growing oil producer on the continent), Algeria and Egypt, will get more interesting. And expect the return of despotic governments tolerated by US and European governments and multinations. Taste of what’s to come:

‘… Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, typified US confusion on Africa policy when she described Teodoro Obiang Nguema, the president of oil-rich Equatorial Guinea where US supermajors Chevron and ExxonMobil have interests as a “good friend”, despite widespread concern over human rights abuses and corruption.’

Now Western multinationals also face competition for control of these resources from Chinese state-run corporations. 

The growing importance of Africa for US energy needs also explain the sudden interest in combating terrorism in the Sahel region of West Africa, among others.

These are some of the findings of the Financial Times recent Special Report on ‘Africa: Oil and Gas.’

* The FT has an excellent Africa page by the way with ‘In Depth’ pages covering, among others, everything about the probable next South African President Jacob Zuma and (surprise, surprise) China’s growing presence on the continent.

The Zuma Chronicles #101

Dr Mageu, a South African kwaito music performer, jailed for seven years by the Johannesburg High Court in November 2007 after being found guilty of raping his Soweto neighbor–a mentally retarded girl–is releasing a new album Zuma for President.

Dr Mageu is a Jacob Zuma supporter.

See here and watch here.

This is not even funny.

* I plan to make the The Zuma a regular feature on this site: that is, an occasional series chronicling the sur- and hyper-reality around the new ANC President. Basically printing random verbatim statements by Zuma’s supporters and critics, as well as by observers of the South African scene, and the occasional news item (like above), as they are recorded in the media.

The Zuma Chronicles, #100

I am starting a new series chronicling the sur- and hyper-reality around Jacob Zuma, the ethically challenged leader of South Africa’s ruling party and probably its next President.

(For your information, general elections are scheduled for 2009 and the ANC holds an unassailable lead among the electorate; the current incumbent is Thabo Mbeki, a pretentious philosopher-king.)

Zuma is variously known as ‘The Comeback Kid‘ (way before Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire primary win), ‘Umshini Wam‘ (Zulu for ‘my machine gun’) and ‘100% Zuluboy‘ (he proffers a rabid Zulu nationalism). Zuma would have taken ‘Mr 10 percent’ too, but Benazir Bhuttu’s husband took that moniker. He is also an avowed sexist and homophobe and a convenient foil for Western journalists to air old stereotypes of African politics.

My aim is to print verbatim statements by Zuma’s supporters and critics, as well as observers of the South African scene, as they are recorded in First World media.

I promise to be a dedicated watcher of the Zuma Chronicles as I am of The Wire, but can’t ensure content as all foreign correspondents have moved to Kenya. Blame Thabo Mbeki for that.

So, first up is Matthews Phosa, once a rival to Mbeki and sometimes Afrikaans poet, who is serving again in the African National Congress’ top leadership.

Last week the Washington Post reported the news that the ANC was officially endorsing Zuma as its candidate for the 2009 elections despite the prospect that Zuma could be sent to prison on corruption charges later this year (the trial is set for August). [Full story here.]

During a press conference to announce this, Phosa defended his leader thus:

‘This case is very politically inspired … And if you deny it, you are just living in your own world, and we’ll leave you there.’

Politricks

Jacob Zuma is scheduled to make his first speech as ANC President today. My sense is he won’t say much that carries weight, except maybe congratulate himself and his ‘camp,’ play up unity within the party and make vague criticisms of Thabo Mbeki. But I could be wrong from where I sit.

On the topic of what Zuma represents: I have a short opinion piece on UK Guardian‘s ‘Comment is Free’ site today.

See here.

How radical is Jacob Zuma really?

The conventional wisdom on Jacob Zuma’s successful ‘campaign’ for the ANC presidency was that he is a radical. That he had strong support from the trade union and communist allies of the ANC was offered as prove.

Now this comment from a story in this morning’s New York Times:

One veteran analyst of South African politics, Steven Friedman, said Tuesday that critics who were casting Mr. Zuma’s populist rhetoric as a sign of radical change were mistaken.

“The guy is personally problematic, and he has a lot of questions to answer,” Mr. Friedman said. “But this is a mainstream figure who was a bosom buddy and close confidante of Thabo Mbeki. He’s not some wild man coming in from the hills to destroy the palace.”

Full story here.

‘It’s hard to stand up for the oppressed while riding in a limousine’

Chris McGreal in the UK Guardian on the bling of the new leadership of South Africa’s ruling party new leadership:

Jacob Zuma crushed [Thabo Mbeki] by playing on the widespread sense of injustice among the poor, represented by ANC officials who arrived at the conference in old buses.

That Zuma himself has a very big, shiny, black Mercedes and a fat bank account, which a judge has already found to have been bolstered by bribes from a French arms company, has discouraged neither him nor his supporters.

Full article here.

Who is Jacob Zuma? What can we expect from him?

So I wrote yesterday that I won’t blog about the African National Congress’ conference ’till it’s over.’ Well, now that Jacob Zuma has soundly defeated Thabo Mbeki to become ANC President, the conference is effectively over.

Unless Zuma goes to prison because of long-standing corruption charges (his legal team has used all kinds of delays to prevent the trial from going ahead), he’ll probably be South Africa’s next democratically elected President in 2009.

As I suggested before, one conclusion of the ANC leadership election is that even the ANC, like political parties everywhere else, is now primarily about leaders and presidential contests.

So who is Jacob Zuma and what can be expected from him?

Unfortunately we won’t learn a lot from the man himself.

Zuma does not write a lot or give memorable speeches (unlike Mbeki who maintains a weekly ‘Letter from the President‘ on the ANC’s website and whose admirers praise his public speaking). A quick scan of Zuma’s public utterances on the ANC website’s ‘Zuma Page‘ or the website set up by his supporters, ‘Friends of Zuma‘ will confirm this.

We do know he can certainly sing.

But another reason for not knowing what his plans for South Africa is, is that Zuma does not give lots of media interviews (he has it in for South Africa’s media) and when he has spoken publicly, he often talks about himself in the third person.

Recent media reports indicate that he lets those in his ‘camp’ speak for him (these include ‘sources,’ as well as the brother of convicted fraudster Shabir Shaik, and former Cabinet Minister Mac Maharaj, Zwelinzima Vavi of Cosatu, ANC leader and now businesman Tokyo Sexwale and the Communist Party leader Blade Nzimande). But even from them you don’t get any clue about Zuma’s politics or policies as they mouth stock phrases and spent most of their time criticizing the ‘Mbeki camp.’

But they and Zuma may start or will be compelled to spell out their policies now.

Meanwhile if you live outside South Africa (or if in South Africa, care what is said about the country outside), there’s also not much available except color pieces and recycled views from South Africa’s mainstream media and now blogosphere.

* James Sturcke profiles Zuma in the UK Guardian, here

* Alec Russell, the Johannesburg correspondent of the Financial Times, profiles Zuma here. This profile was done before he became ANC President, but I am referencing it here as it contains the memorable lines: ‘Unquestionably, he [Zuma] is a more authentically African leader than Mr Mbeki who gives the impression of being most at home at economic summits. He repairs regularly to his home in Zululand, a collection of rondavels (traditional round African huts), and holds court like an old-fashioned chief. He appears in traditional ceremonies in a leopard-skin. He has between 16 and 18 children‘).

* A profile in the BBC today who refers to Zuma as ‘South Africa’s Comeback Kid,’ here and;

* Jonathan Clayton in the London Times here.

* Finally, there is also this older interview with Zuma in Der Spiegel. (This is quite illuminating.)

By the way, the ANC website has been slow to report the news that it has a new President. It will also be interesting what Mbeki will write in his ‘Letter from the President’ this Friday; that is if he will write it, or will be allowed to.

It is also not clear whether Zuma will continue this tradition.

Jacob Zuma’s Umshini Wam*

So South Africa’s African National Congress is meeting in Polokwane, the capital of Limpopo province till Thursday, December 20th, for its national conference.

Not surprisingly policy differences are not dominating the conference, but rather the bitter public contest over who will lead the organization (after this conference) and the country (whoever becomes party president will probably become the ANC candidate in the 2009 general elections).

I will not recycle here all the conventional wisdom about the conference and the leadership race given that everyone knows by now that the ethically challenged Jacob Zuma, is the favorite to replace the incumbent Thabo Mbeki. Zuma was the country’s former deputy president until he was fired by the very unpopular Mbeki. Among others, Zuma was also accused of rape, has backward views on the position of women and gays and faces corruption charges. [It is astonishing how South African politics has been reduced to personalities, a horse race contest and more importantly, an epoch which high office is associated with personal wealth. The country has definitely arrived in the 'free world.']

News from the conference (and here the internet has been indispensable as well as from contacts attending it as observers) confirm that Zuma is on course to claim the big prize. It is also obvious that Mbeki is being publicly humiliated by the party membership and that the Zuma camp’s candidates are well placed to take key leadership positions (see here for example).

Should ‘JZ’ (as Zuma is affectionately known by his supporters) become party president, what kind of leader would he be? Of this there is not much reporting. Of course, Zuma is different in temperament than Mbeki, has less paranoia and does not pretend to be intellectual, but on the big questions of the day — (1) the massive inequality (South Africa has the distinction of being the most unequal country in the world; and (2) the massive unemployment (estimated at 40%) despite uninterrupted economic growth, both which still mirrors Apartheid — don’t expect much to change under Zuma.

Nevertheless, there’s been ample reporting and commentary in the Western press (South Africa rarely demands this kind of full court press in the international media anymore) on the meaning of the conference. These include articles by South African political journalist William Gumede (author of a very unflattering book analyzing how Mbeki transformed the ANC) in the New Statesman, the rightwing ‘commentator’ RW Johnson on the UK Guardian’s ‘Comment is Free’ webpage (Johnson spots a Communist plot in the anti-Mbeki sentiment expressed by callers into talk radio in South Africa and recycles innuendo and gossip from South Africa’s print media), the London Times (here), Sydney Morning Herald (here) and in the New York Times (here) and Washington Post (here) among others.

So we wait another day.

[NB: I won't blog about the conference again till its over]

* Umshini Wam is Zulu for ‘My Machine Gun.’